Vikings at Buccaneers, Week 3 preview: three matchups that decide Sunday

Tampa Bay is 0-2 for the first time since 2014. Minnesota is 2-0 for the first time in a divisional stretch since 2003. One of those streaks breaks on Sunday, September 27, when the Vikings visit Raymond James Stadium, kickoff 4:05 PM ET, 22:05 CEST, on FOX.

Key facts

• The Buccaneers (0-2) host the Minnesota Vikings (2-0) at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday, September 27, at 4:05 PM ET, 22:05 CEST, on FOX (Buccaneers.com, September 25).
• Minnesota blitzes on 79.3 percent of its defensive snaps, the highest rate in the NFL, and Tampa Bay has allowed seven sacks in two games (Buccaneers.com By the Numbers, September 23).
• Rueben Bain Jr. (groin) and Josiah Trotter (shoulder) are both out for Tampa Bay, whose pass rush has three sacks in two games, against a Vikings offense that gets Kyler Murray back from concussion protocol (Buccaneers.com, September 25).
• Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson has 11 catches for 147 yards and 2 touchdowns on 15 targets through two games (ESPN game log, accessed September 27).
• Minnesota added linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. to its injury report on Saturday, September 26, and lists him questionable after he did not travel with the team for a personal matter unrelated to injury (CBS Sports, September 26).
• Tampa Bay is 0-2 for the first time since 2014; a loss Sunday would be its first 0-3 start since that same season (ESPN team stats, Buccaneers.com).

Three matchups that decide it

The first is Baker Mayfield against Brian Flores. Minnesota's defensive coordinator blitzes on 79.3 percent of defensive snaps, the highest rate in the league, and Tampa Bay has allowed seven sacks and turned the ball over repeatedly through two losses, as BucsWorld detailed in the numbers behind that blitz rate.

The second is the other way around. Tampa Bay has three sacks in two games, and its best edge rusher, rookie Rueben Bain Jr., is out with a groin injury. Kyler Murray, back from the concussion protocol, has rushed for 3,202 yards in his career and turns pressure that arrives late into scramble yardage, a problem BucsWorld covered when Murray was cleared to start. A pass rush that already ranks among the league's least productive, discussed in BucsWorld's review of the Bucs defense at 0-2, now faces a quarterback built to punish exactly that gap.

The third is new this week: Tampa Bay's secondary against Justin Jefferson. Minnesota's receiver has 11 catches for 147 yards and 2 touchdowns on 15 targets through two games, both scores coming in Week 1 against Green Bay. The Bucs held Ja'Marr Chase to 12 yards in Week 1, but Jefferson is a different kind of target, a route runner who wins on volume as much as explosive plays.

Who is missing

Source: Buccaneers.com, September 25; CBS Sports, September 26.

Minnesota added linebacker Ivan Pace Jr. to its injury report on Saturday, September 26, listing him questionable after he did not travel with the team for a personal matter unrelated to injury. Pace has played 24 defensive snaps and 44 special-teams snaps through two games. On the Bucs' side, Baker Mayfield practiced in full all week through an illness and carries no designation. The full breakdown of both rosters is in BucsWorld's Week 3 injury report, and the depth chart shows who steps in for Bain and Trotter.

What a third straight loss would mean

Tampa Bay has not opened a season 0-2 since 2014, and that team finished 2-14. A loss Sunday would put the Buccaneers at 0-3 for the first time since that same season, a hole that would leave little margin the rest of the way, even with 14 games still to play.

None of that is decided by history. It comes down to whether Mayfield can get the ball out before Flores' extra rushers arrive, whether a Bucs pass rush missing its first-round pick can bother Murray at all, and whether the secondary that handled Chase can do the same to Jefferson. Get two of those three right, and Tampa Bay ends its skid at home.