Week 4 start/sit: Buccaneers vs Packers

Tampa Bay is 0-3 and hosts Green Bay at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday, October 4, kickoff 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time (7:00 p.m. CEST), on FOX. DraftKings, via Sports Illustrated, has the Packers favored by 3.5 with a total of 39.5, one of the lower numbers on the board. Lines move, so treat this as a snapshot. Injury information below comes from Wednesday's practice report, so recheck Friday.

Key facts

• Tampa Bay is 0-3 after a 23-16 home loss to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3.
• Baker Mayfield dislocated his right thumb late in that game and is sidelined for at least three weeks, so undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels starts against Green Bay.
• Jalen McMillan was placed on injured reserve with a knee injury.
• DraftKings (via Sports Illustrated) has Green Bay favored by 3.5 with a total of 39.5.
• Packers running back Josh Jacobs is on the Commissioner's Exempt List and cannot play.

The matchup

The big news is at quarterback. Baker Mayfield dislocated his right thumb late in the 23-16 loss to Minnesota and will miss at least three weeks. Undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels makes his first NFL start. In that game Mayfield completed 17 of 34 passes for 217 yards, one touchdown and one interception, and was sacked six times.

Green Bay's passing game is for real: Jordan Love has 844 yards and six touchdowns through three games, and the Packers rank fourth in the league in passing yards. The weakness is on the ground, where Green Bay sits 28th in rushing defense at 138.7 yards allowed per game. Tampa Bay's offense ranks among the league's worst by EPA per play, while its defense ranks sixth, so expect a low-scoring game.

Buccaneers start/sit/flex

Bucky Irving, RB, start. Irving played 36 snaps against Minnesota to Kenny Gainwell's 32, and carried 15 times for 46 yards. He was limited in Wednesday's practice with a glute issue. Against the 28th-ranked run defense he is the safest Buccaneer, but confirm his Friday status.

Emeka Egbuka, WR, flex. Egbuka caught 5 passes for 62 yards on 9 targets in Week 3 and has finished as WR29, WR33 and WR38 in PPR through three weeks. His average target comes 12.5 yards downfield, which fits Daniels' deep-ball tendencies better than Godwin's short game. CBS Sports advises against starting him; we treat him as a WR3 only.

Chris Godwin Jr., WR, sit. Godwin caught 3 passes for 25 yards on 43 snaps against Minnesota, has not topped 43 yards in a game, and missed Wednesday's practice with an ankle injury. His short targets are a poor fit for a rookie quarterback.

Ted Hurst III, WR, flex (deep leagues). Hurst led all receivers with 52 snaps and scored a 40-yard touchdown. With Jalen McMillan on injured reserve, his role is secure, but the production is thin.

Jalon Daniels, QB, sit. An undrafted rookie in his first start belongs on the bench in every format except deep superflex.

Baker Mayfield, QB, sit. He is out.

Kenny Gainwell, RB, flex (deep PPR). Gainwell's snap share is close to Irving's, and he becomes a real option if Irving's glute limits him.

Cade Otton, TE, flex (streaming only). Otton played 94% of snaps in Week 3, but Payne Durham saw a season-high 55% of snaps, so the tight end volume is split. Treat him as a streamer at best.

Chase McLaughlin, K, start. He made both field goals in Week 3 (28 yards each). A 39.5 total is a kicker-friendly script for a team that struggles to finish drives.

Buccaneers D/ST, start. This unit ranks sixth in EPA per play and Alex Anzalone, David Walker and Anthony Nelson each recorded a sack against Minnesota. Green Bay's quarterback faces pressure on 42.1% of dropbacks, the highest of Love's career through three weeks. Rueben Bain Jr. and Yaya Diaby missed Wednesday's practice, which is the one real risk.

Packers players to start against the Bucs

Jordan Love, QB, start. He has 844 yards and 6 touchdowns through three games, with the fourth-ranked passing offense. Tampa Bay's pass defense is good, but Love's volume carries him.

Christian Watson, WR, start. Watson leads Green Bay with 284 receiving yards and has 6 red zone targets, trailing only Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Matthew Golden, WR, start. Golden has 253 receiving yards and leads all receivers with 416 targeted air yards, which gives him big-play upside.

Packers backfield, avoid. Josh Jacobs is on the Commissioner's Exempt List. MarShawn Lloyd is the favorite among Lloyd, Chris Brooks and Kaleb Johnson, but the Packers average a league-worst 3.0 yards per rush. Tampa Bay's run defense is not the issue; the committee and the weak rushing numbers are. Avoid it.

Waiver and streaming notes

If you rely on Mayfield, the quarterback market is thin: Daniels is the only Tampa Bay option and not a good one. Hurst is the receiver to add in deep leagues given McMillan's injured reserve placement. Kenny Gainwell is a handcuff worth holding if you own Irving, given the glute designation.