Week 6 start/sit: Buccaneers vs Steelers

Tampa Bay has its first win of the season and a home game to protect it. The Buccaneers host the Pittsburgh Steelers at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday, October 18, kickoff 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time (7:00 p.m. CEST), on CBS. FanDuel, via SI, has Pittsburgh favored by 2.5 points with a total of 40.5, and BetMGM has the Steelers at 3. Either way, this is a low-scoring game on paper, and the totals matter for how you read every verdict below.

Key facts

• Tampa Bay beat Dallas 24-16 on Thursday Night Football in Week 5 to move to 1-4.
• Bucky Irving ran 21 times for 165 yards and a touchdown against the Cowboys and played 54% of the snaps.
• Emeka Egbuka was targeted nine times and played 89% of the snaps in Week 5.
• Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point road favorite with a 40.5-point total at FanDuel, via SI.
• Baker Mayfield did not practice Wednesday with a right thumb injury, and Jalon Daniels is expected to start at quarterback.

One caveat on timing: all injury information here comes from Wednesday's practice report. Thursday and Friday designations will move several of these calls, so check them before you lock your lineup.

The matchup

Tampa Bay beat Dallas 24-16 on Thursday night without a turnover, running for 241 yards, a season high, and finishing with 419 total yards. Rookie Jalon Daniels completed 19 of 25 passes for 189 yards and a touchdown, with one sack. The Bucs are 1-4.

The defensive side is more interesting for fantasy. According to Sharp Football Analysis, no quarterback has finished higher than QB12 against Tampa Bay this season, even though the Bucs rank 30th in pressure rate (26.7%) and third in blitz rate (41%). Pittsburgh, for its part, allows few points per pass attempt (seventh) but has given up 19 pass plays of 20 or more yards, 31st in the league.

Buccaneers start/sit/flex

Bucky Irving, RB, start. Irving ran 21 times for 165 yards and a touchdown against Dallas and added a 5-yard receiving touchdown, on 35 snaps (54%). With a 40.5 total and a spread of about a field goal, the game script should stay close, and Irving owns the lead role. Pittsburgh's run defense is the unknown here, which keeps this at Medium confidence rather than High.

Emeka Egbuka, WR, start. Egbuka played 58 snaps (89%), ran 26 routes and drew nine targets, six catches for 38 yards, and scored on a 14-yard end-around. Nine targets is the clearest usage signal on the roster. Pittsburgh's weakness is the deep ball, and Egbuka leads the team in air yards from Week 5 (73).

Chris Godwin Jr., WR, start (WR3). Godwin caught 3 of 3 targets for 37 yards on 58 snaps. He did not practice Wednesday, listed as a rest day, so confirm Friday. If he is clean, he is a fine WR3 in a game where Daniels leans on short targets.

Jalon Daniels, QB, flex (superflex and two-QB leagues only). Sharp Football Analysis had Daniels as QB18 last week with 13.9 points, and calls him a QB2 in a tougher matchup. He scrambled on 16.4% of dropbacks, the league's highest rate over the past two weeks, which gives him a rushing floor. In single-QB leagues, he stays on the bench.

Baker Mayfield, QB, sit (out). Mayfield did not practice Wednesday with a right thumb injury. FantasyPros wrote on October 9 that he is not expected to return in Week 6, and Daniels is expected to start. Only start Mayfield if Friday brings a full-practice surprise.

Kenny Gainwell, RB, flex (PPR). Gainwell played 24 snaps (37%), ran 13 routes and drew four targets for three catches and 10 yards. The role is real but small, so he is a PPR flex only.

Sean Tucker, RB, sit. Tucker did not practice Wednesday with a quad injury, and he played only six snaps against Dallas.

Ted Hurst III, WR, sit. Hurst played 30 snaps (46%) and ran 15 routes but was not targeted once.

Cade Otton, TE, flex (streaming). Otton played 94% of the snaps with four targets for three catches and 25 yards. The usage is dependable, the production is thin.

Chase McLaughlin, K, start. Nobody on the injury report is a kicker, but Tampa Bay's implied total sits at 18.75 points per Sharp, so the ceiling is modest. Treat him as a streamer-level start.

Buccaneers D/ST, start. The no-QB-above-QB12 trend and a home game against a team with a 40.5 total support a start. The risk is the secondary: Antoine Winfield Jr. (rib) did not practice and is expected to miss at least another week or two, and Benjamin Morrison (quad) and SirVocea Dennis (ankle/foot) were limited.

Steelers players to start against the Bucs

Aaron Rodgers, QB, flex. Rodgers has three straight QB1 weeks with three touchdown passes in each, but Sharp Football Analysis calls him a volume-based QB2 here and expects regression (nine touchdowns on 4.5 expected).

Jaylen Warren, RB, start. Warren has handled the backfield while Rico Dowdle (toe) missed time, and Yahoo ranks him as a must-start. Dowdle was limited Wednesday, so the split depends on Friday. Tampa Bay trails only Jacksonville in fewest rushing yards per game, which caps the ceiling.

Pat Freiermuth, TE, start. Freiermuth caught 5 of 7 targets for 44 yards and two touchdowns against Indianapolis. The Bucs have allowed the tenth-most fantasy points to tight ends.

Rico Dowdle, RB, sit. Limited Wednesday with a toe injury, he is a hold until Friday.

Waiver and streaming notes

Pittsburgh's receiver room is thin: Ben Skowronek and Roman Wilson did not practice Wednesday and Michael Pittman Jr. is on injured reserve. Yahoo lists the Steelers D/ST as a top-five streaming option this week.

For Tampa Bay, the add to watch is the quarterback decision, because Mayfield's grip test and Friday's designations settle the position. Everything else here depends on the same report.